ISM Manufacturing Index: The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index moved down 1.2 points month on month (m/m) to 57.6 for January 2022; this value is stronger than the forecast of 50.  The new orders sub-index scored a 57.9. Overall, the ISM manufacturing index is strong, while the global economy is beginning to strengthen again following shutdowns throughout Covid-19.

The ISM manufacturing index is based on surveys of 300 purchasing managers in 17 industries. The survey is a diffusion index calculated as a percent of responses. A value of 50 is neutral, while less than 50 denotes contracting manufacturing activity and greater than 50 denotes expanding activity.

Figure 1 breaks down the composite index and sub-indexes. The backlogs sub-index was 56.4 this month, while the inventories sub-index was 53.2.

The 14 manufacturing industries reporting growth in January — in the following order — are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Furniture & Related Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Machinery; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Transportation Equipment; Primary Metals; Fabricated Metal Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Chemical Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; and Plastics & Rubber Products. The only industry reporting a decrease in January compared to December is Paper Products.

“Lack of skilled production personnel, either from missing work due to (COVID-19) variants or leaving for better opportunities, making it more difficult to complete work. Working off a backlog.” [Fabricated Metal Products]

At Gerdau, we closely monitor the ISM manufacturing index since it is an excellent barometer of the present strength, as well as a window on the likely short-run future, of U.S. manufacturing.