At Gerdau, we follow the AAR report is because; freight railroading is a “derived demand” industry: demand for rail service occurs as a result of demand elsewhere in the economy for the products railroads haul.

We monitor and report on consumer confidence because it has a strong correlation with steel consumption. Consumer spending represents approximately 70% of GDP. When consumer confidence is strong, it leads to increased steel consumption.

The monthly Broad Index value of the US $ at the end of November was higher than at any time since April 2002, Figure 1.

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The Bureau of Economic Analysis, (BEA) introduced a new data set for GDP by state and region in 2014 and back dated it to Q1 2005. Last week the data was updated through Q2 2016.