Advance Durable Goods Orders: The U.S. Census Bureau reported that new orders for durable goods in January 2022 increased by 1.6% month on month (m/m) to $277.4M, following the 1.2% increase in December. The always-volatile nondefense aircraft orders, up 1,144.1% y/y, influenced this trend significantly.

The Advance Report on Durable Goods (DG) is based upon data reported from manufacturing establishments with $500 million or more in annual shipments. Units may be divisions of diversified large companies, large homogenous companies, or single-unit manufacturers in 89 industry categories.

Capital goods orders increased by 5.2% for the month but are up 31.9% on a y/y basis. Transportation orders increased by 3.4% but were up 29.4% vs. a year ago. Leaving out transportation business, orders increased 0.7% m/m and increased 11.2% y/y.

Motor vehicles and parts were down 0.4% m/m as orders decreased 0.7% y/y. Orders for primary metal were up 0.2% m/m and have increased 21.2% y/y. Durable goods shipments increased 1.2% m/m and are up by 9.6% vs. a year ago. Capital goods shipments was up 2.3% m/m and are up 11.0% y/y.

Figure 1 shows the history of DG orders from 2010 to present. New orders totaled $277.4M in January, a 9.6% increase y/y.

At Gerdau, we routinely monitor advance durable goods orders since it provides a good read on the current health of the US manufacturing economy and its probable short-run future.