Advance Durable Goods Orders: The U.S. Census Bureau reported that new orders for durable goods in September 2021 decreased by 0.4% month on month (m/m) to $261.3M, following the 1.3% increase in August. The always-volatile nondefense aircraft orders, up 1000+% y/y, influenced this trend significantly.

The Advance Report on Durable Goods (DG) is based upon data reported from manufacturing establishments with $500 million or more in annual shipments. Units may be divisions of diversified large companies, large homogenous companies, or single-unit manufacturers in 89 industry categories.

Capital goods orders decreased by 0.4% for the month but are up 38.1% on a y/y basis. Transportation orders decreased by 2.3% but were up 41.0% vs. a year ago. Leaving out transportation business, orders increased 0.4% m/m and increased 17.3% y/y.

Motor vehicles and parts were down 2.9% m/m as orders increased 13.8% y/y. Orders for primary metal were up 0.6% m/m and have increased 27.7% y/y. Durable goods shipments increased 0.4% m/m and are up by 4.6% vs. a year ago. Capital goods shipments was flat m/m and are up 13.7% y/y.

Figure 1 shows the history of DG orders from 2010 to present. New orders totaled $261.3M in September, a 9.9% increase y/y.

At Gerdau, we routinely monitor advance durable goods orders since it provides a good read on the current health of the US manufacturing economy and its probable short-run future.