Advance Durable Goods Orders: The U.S. Census Bureau reported that new orders for durable goods in July 2021 decreased by 0.1% month on month (m/m) to $257.2M, following the 0.8% increase in June. The always-volatile nondefense aircraft orders, down 48.9% m/m, influenced this trend significantly.

The Advance Report on Durable Goods is based upon data reported from manufacturing establishments with $500 million or more in annual shipments. Units may be divisions of diversified large companies, large homogenous companies, or single-unit manufacturers in 89 industry categories.

Capital goods orders decreased by 5.0% for the month but are up 39.3% on a YTD y/y basis. Transportation equipment orders decreased by 2.2% but were up 48.8% vs. this time one year ago. Leaving out transportation business, new orders for durable goods increased 0.7% m/m and increased 17.7% YTD y/y.

Motor vehicles and parts were up 5.8% m/m as orders increased 21.6% YTD y/y. Orders for primary metal were up 2.7% m/m and have increased 27.7% YTD y/y. Durable goods shipments increased 2.2% m/m and are up by 14.6% vs. this time one year ago. Capital goods shipments increased by 1.1% m/m and are up 13.5% YTD y/y.

Figure 1 shows the history of durable goods orders from 2010 to present. New orders totaled $257.2M in July, a 25.3% increase YTD y/y.

At Gerdau, we routinely monitor advance durable goods orders since it provides a good read on the current health of the US manufacturing economy and its probable short-run future.