Advance Durable Goods Orders: The U.S. Census Bureau reported that new orders for durable goods in April 2024 was up 0.7%(m/m) to $284.0, following the 0.8% increase in March. The always-volatile nondefense aircraft orders, down 8.5% y/y, influenced this trend significantly.

The Advance Report on Durable Goods (DG) is based upon data reported from manufacturing establishments with $500 million or more in annual shipments. Units may be divisions of diversified large companies, large homogenous companies, or single-unit manufacturers in 89 industry categories.

Capital goods orders increased by 0.5% for the month but are down 2.9% on a y/y basis. Transportation orders increased by 1.2% but were down 2.7% vs. a year ago. Leaving out transportation business, orders was up 0.4% and increased 2.1% y/y.

Motor vehicles and parts were up 1.5% m/m as orders increased 2.9% y/y. Orders for primary metal were up 1.3% m/m and have increased 1.0% y/y. Durable goods shipments were up 1.2% and are up by 2.3% vs. a year ago. Capital goods shipments was up 2.4% m/m and are up 2.1% y/y.

Figure 1 shows the history of DG orders from 2013 to present. New orders totaled $284.0M in April, an 1.2% increase y/y.

At Gerdau, we routinely monitor advance durable goods orders since it provides a good read on the current health of the US manufacturing economy and its probable short-run future.