Advance Durable Goods Orders: The U.S. Census Bureau reported that new orders for durable goods in July 2023 decreased 5.2% (m/m) to $285.9, following the 4.4% increase in June. The always-volatile nondefense aircraft orders, up 31.9% y/y, influenced this trend significantly.

The Advance Report on Durable Goods (DG) is based upon data reported from manufacturing establishments with $500 million or more in annual shipments. Units may be divisions of diversified large companies, large homogenous companies, or single-unit manufacturers in 89 industry categories.

Capital goods orders decreased by 13.7% for the month but are up 8.2% on a y/y basis. Transportation orders decreased by 14.3% but were up 12.8% vs. a year ago. Leaving out transportation business, orders was negative 5.4% m/m and increased 3.7% y/y.

Motor vehicles and parts were up 0.8% m/m as orders increased 7.6% y/y. Orders for primary metal were up 0.1% m/m and have decreased 1.9% y/y. Durable goods shipments was flat m/m and are up by 4.3% vs. a year ago. Capital goods shipments was down 1.1% m/m and are up 7.6% y/y.

Figure 1 shows the history of DG orders from 2010 to present. New orders totaled $285.9M in July, a 4.7% increase y/y.

At Gerdau, we routinely monitor advance durable goods orders since it provides a good read on the current health of the US manufacturing economy and its probable short-run future.