Advance Durable Goods Orders: The U.S. Census Bureau reported that new orders for durable goods in May 2023 increased 1.7% (m/m) to $288.1M, following the 1.2% increase in April. The always-volatile nondefense aircraft orders, up 1.9% y/y, influenced this trend significantly.

The Advance Report on Durable Goods (DG) is based upon data reported from manufacturing establishments with $500 million or more in annual shipments. Units may be divisions of diversified large companies, large homogenous companies, or single-unit manufacturers in 89 industry categories.

Capital goods orders increased by 2.8% for the month but are up 5.1% on a y/y basis. Transportation orders increased by 3.9% but were up 10.2% vs. a year ago. Leaving out transportation business, orders was positive 0.6% m/m and increased 0.4% y/y.

Motor vehicles and parts were up 2.2% m/m as orders increased 8.2% y/y. Orders for primary metal were up 0.5% m/m and have decreased 2.4% y/y. Durable goods shipments was up 1.7% m/m and are up by 4.5% vs. a year ago. Capital goods shipments was up 2.7% m/m and are up 7.3% y/y.

Figure 1 shows the history of DG orders from 2010 to present. New orders totaled $288.1M in May, a 7.7% increase y/y.

At Gerdau, we routinely monitor advance durable goods orders since it provides a good read on the current health of the US manufacturing economy and its probable short-run future.