Advance Durable Goods Orders: The U.S. Census Bureau reported that new orders for durable goods in March 2023 increased 3.2% (m/m) to $276.4M, following the 1.2% decrease in February. The always-volatile nondefense aircraft orders, down 10.9% y/y, influenced this trend significantly.

The Advance Report on Durable Goods (DG) is based upon data reported from manufacturing establishments with $500 million or more in annual shipments. Units may be divisions of diversified large companies, large homogenous companies, or single-unit manufacturers in 89 industry categories.

Capital goods orders increased by 8.7% for the month but are up 1.4% on a y/y basis. Transportation orders increased by 9.1% but were up 7.1% vs. a year ago. Leaving out transportation business, orders was positive 0.3% m/m and increased 1.5% y/y.

Motor vehicles and parts were down 0.1% m/m as orders increased 10.3% y/y. Orders for primary metal were up 0.1% m/m and have decreased 1.2% y/y. Durable goods shipments was up 1.1% m/m and are up by 5.9% vs. a year ago. Capital goods shipments was up 3.0% m/m and are up 8.2% y/y.

Figure 1 shows the history of DG orders from 2010 to present. New orders totaled $276.4M in March, a 1.4% increase y/y.

At Gerdau, we routinely monitor advance durable goods orders since it provides a good read on the current health of the US manufacturing economy and its probable short-run future.