Advance Durable Goods Orders: The U.S. Census Bureau reported that new orders for durable goods in November 2022 decreased 2.1% (m/m) to $270.6M, following the 0.7% increase in October. The always-volatile nondefense aircraft orders, up 44.8% y/y, influenced this trend significantly.

The Advance Report on Durable Goods (DG) is based upon data reported from manufacturing establishments with $500 million or more in annual shipments. Units may be divisions of diversified large companies, large homogenous companies, or single-unit manufacturers in 89 industry categories.

Capital goods orders decreased by 5.5% for the month but are up 12.3% on a y/y basis. Transportation orders decreased by 6.3% but were up 18.4% vs. a year ago. Leaving out transportation business, orders increased 0.2% m/m and increased 6.9% y/y.

Motor vehicles and parts were down 0.1% m/m as orders increased 13.9% y/y. Orders for primary metal were down 0.4% m/m and have increased 8.4% y/y. Durable goods shipments was up 0.2% m/m and are up by 10.9% vs. a year ago. Capital goods shipments was up 0.6% m/m and are up 11.3% y/y.

Figure 1 shows the history of DG orders from 2010 to present. New orders totaled $270.6M in November, a 0.2% increase y/y.

At Gerdau, we routinely monitor advance durable goods orders since it provides a good read on the current health of the US manufacturing economy and its probable short-run future.