Advance Durable Goods Orders: The U.S. Census Bureau reported that new orders for durable goods in March 2022 increased by 0.8% month on month (m/m) to $275M, following the 1.7% decrease in February. The always-volatile nondefense aircraft orders, up 153.5% y/y, influenced this trend significantly.

The Advance Report on Durable Goods (DG) is based upon data reported from manufacturing establishments with $500 million or more in annual shipments. Units may be divisions of diversified large companies, large homogenous companies, or single-unit manufacturers in 89 industry categories.

Capital goods orders decreased by 1.1% for the month but are up 18.3% on a y/y basis. Transportation orders decreased by 0.2% but were up 17.8% vs. a year ago. Leaving out transportation business, orders decreased 1.1% m/m and increased 10.3% y/y.

Motor vehicles and parts were up 5.0% m/m as orders increased 5.6% y/y. Orders for primary metal were down 1.5% m/m and have increased 17.8% y/y. Durable goods shipments was up 1.2% m/m and are up by 11.2% vs. a year ago. Capital goods shipments was down 0.3% m/m and are up 11.7% y/y.

Figure 1 shows the history of DG orders from 2010 to present. New orders totaled $275M in March, a 12.6% increase y/y.

At Gerdau, we routinely monitor advance durable goods orders since it provides a good read on the current health of the US manufacturing economy and its probable short-run future.