Advance Durable Goods Orders: The U.S. Census Bureau reported that new orders for durable goods in February 2022 decreased by 2.2% month on month (m/m) to $271.5M, following the 1.6% increase in January. The always-volatile nondefense aircraft orders, up 244.6% y/y, influenced this trend significantly.

The Advance Report on Durable Goods (DG) is based upon data reported from manufacturing establishments with $500 million or more in annual shipments. Units may be divisions of diversified large companies, large homogenous companies, or single-unit manufacturers in 89 industry categories.

Capital goods orders decreased by 4.6% for the month but are up 23.2% on a y/y basis. Transportation orders decreased by 5.6% but were up 21.6% vs. a year ago. Leaving out transportation business, orders decreased 0.6% m/m and increased 11.0% y/y.

Motor vehicles and parts were down 0.5% m/m as orders increased 3.1% y/y. Orders for primary metal were down 0.9% m/m and have increased 19.0% y/y. Durable goods shipments was flat m/m and are up by 11.1% vs. a year ago. Capital goods shipments was up 0.1% m/m and are up 12.3% y/y.

Figure 1 shows the history of DG orders from 2010 to present. New orders totaled $271.5M in February, a 10.3% increase y/y.

At Gerdau, we routinely monitor advance durable goods orders since it provides a good read on the current health of the US manufacturing economy and its probable short-run future.