Advance Durable Goods Orders: The U.S. Census Bureau reported that new orders for durable goods in October 2021 decreased by 0.5% month on month (m/m) to $260.1M, following the 0.4% decrease in September. The always-volatile nondefense aircraft orders, up 1000+% y/y, influenced this trend significantly.

The Advance Report on Durable Goods (DG) is based upon data reported from manufacturing establishments with $500 million or more in annual shipments. Units may be divisions of diversified large companies, large homogenous companies, or single-unit manufacturers in 89 industry categories.

Capital goods orders decreased by 4.0% for the month but are up 36.0% on a y/y basis. Transportation orders decreased by 2.6% but were up 37.1% vs. a year ago. Leaving out transportation business, orders increased 0.5% m/m and increased 16.7% y/y.

Motor vehicles and parts were up 4.8% m/m as orders increased 11.6% y/y. Orders for primary metal were up 1.7% m/m and have increased 27.3% y/y. Durable goods shipments increased 1.5% m/m and are up by 4.9% vs. a year ago. Capital goods shipments was up 0.2% m/m and are up 13.2% y/y.

Figure 1 shows the history of DG orders from 2010 to present. New orders totaled $260.8M in October, a 7.4% increase y/y.

At Gerdau, we routinely monitor advance durable goods orders since it provides a good read on the current health of the US manufacturing economy and its probable short-run future.